Are FiveThirtyEight Polls Actually Right?

Data Source

• All data is from FiveThirtyEight.com

Filters

• All polls are after 10/29/2020 because it's 5 days before the election

• I combined all ratings into the lowest rating so B includes A/B and C includes B/C

Key Points

• For FiveThirtyEight being such a big polling data website, they don't include standard deviations, which is a big deal.

• The FiveThirtyEight poll ratings don't matter at all for how off a poll is.

• All Polls are way more off for Trump than Biden. Trump gains more on actual polls than Biden.

• The State doesn't make a difference in how off the poll is. Trump still gains percentage in the real polls.

• C rated Polls are considered the best but not by much.

• FiveThirtyEight Ratings doesn't seem to be any better at poll predictions than just any random poll.

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